Executive Summary

Vietnam's economy sustained robust momentum in 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% year-on-year in Q2 and 7.52% in H1, the strongest first-half performance since 2011, led by services and manufacturing despite global trade tensions and new tariff headwinds. Inflation remained contained, unemployment stayed low, and FDI inflows accelerated.

Resilient growth Stable macro Strong FDI External risks

GDP Q2 2025

+7.96%

YoY growth

GDP H1 2025

+7.52%

Highest H1 since 2011

Inflation (Jun)

3.57%

Well within 3–4.5% target

Unemployment (Q1)

2.20%

Near historic lows

FDI H1 2025

$21.51B

+32.6% YoY

Confidence remains strong

Summary Highlights

Growth outperformed recent years; services and manufacturing were key drivers.
Inflation remained manageable; purchasing power supported by stable prices.
Labor market strong with low unemployment.
FDI surged in both registrations and disbursements, signaling investor confidence.

Methodology

This synthesis integrates official statistics and reputable international forecasts cited in the Sources. Figures are presented as reported; no seasonal adjustment or rebasing was performed. Forecast ranges are visualized as bands; year-on-year (YoY) changes are emphasized for comparability.

Scope

Macroeconomic performance of Vietnam in 2025 (H1), with historical comparison and external forecasts.

Data Handling

Direct transcription of reported values; units normalized to % or USD where applicable; sources preserved with links.

Visualization

Custom Canvas charts; interactive tooltips; legends toggle series; export PNG.

Integrity

Cross-referenced to official and multilateral sources. See References section for links.

Key Findings

Updated: 2025 H1

Vietnam posted Q2 GDP growth of 7.96% YoY; H1 growth reached 7.52% (strongest since 2011).
Inflation averaged within the 3–4.5% target range; June recorded 3.57%.
Unemployment at 2.20% in Q1 2025, down from 2.22% in Q4 2024.
FDI momentum accelerated: $18.4B registered (+51% YoY) in the first 5 months; $8.9B disbursed; H1 total reached $21.51B (+32.6% YoY).
Retail sales expanded 9.9% YoY in Q1 to VND 1.708 quadrillion (US$66.83B).
Banking sector earnings expected to rise 17% in 2025, supported by 15% credit growth.
Forecasts: WB 5.8%, ADB 6.6%, IMF 5.2% versus government target 8.3–8.5%.

Context: Despite strong domestic fundamentals, external headwinds persist from trade tensions, tariffs, and geopolitics; policy aims to diversify markets and support demand.

GDP Growth Performance

Quarterly performance and historical Q1 trend.

Insight: H1 2025's 7.52% marks the strongest mid-year since 2011, driven by services and manufacturing [see Sectoral Analysis].

Inflation and Forecasts

Recent inflation prints with IMF and ADB 2025 forecasts.

Inflation remains well-controlled within the 3–4.5% target range.

FDI Momentum

Registered vs. disbursed (first 5 months) and H1 total.

Signal: Rising registrations and disbursements point to robust pipeline and execution.

2025 GDP Forecasts vs Targets

Range band shows government target (8.3–8.5%).

International forecasts are more conservative than official targets; policy support and FDI could narrow the gap.

Sectoral Analysis

Retail +9.9% YoY (Q1) Banking +17% earnings (’25E)

Primary Growth Drivers

Services: Major contributor to GDP growth.
Manufacturing: Sustained recovery and development.
Exports: Remain the backbone despite trade pressures.
Banking: Earnings +17% expected, underpinned by +15% credit growth.

Retail Performance

Q1 2025 Sales

VND 1.708 quadrillion

USD Equivalent

$66.83B

YoY Growth

+9.9%

Outlook

Supported by jobs & prices

Cross-references

See Visualizations for GDP and inflation context; Dataset for indicator-level details.

Challenges & Risks

Manageable

External

Global trade tensions impacting export activity.
US tariff policies pressuring export-oriented firms.
Geopolitical instability raising uncertainty.

Structural

Overdependence on FDI flagged by experts.
Need to deepen domestic value-add and supply-chain resilience.

Macro Stability

Growth should not jeopardize stability, debt, or price anchors.
Maintain fiscal space to cushion external shocks.

Mitigation Strategy

Diversify export markets and products.
Strengthen domestic demand and SMEs.
Calibrated macro policy mix; targeted fiscal support if needed.

Key Indicators Dataset

Period Min Value Max Value Click headers to sort

Category	Metric	Period	Value	Unit	Note	Source

Economic Outlook and Projections

Vietnam began 2025 strongly (Q1 +6.9% YoY). Outlook remains constructive despite global uncertainty. Government targets 8.3–8.5% growth; international forecasts are lower but acknowledge resilient fundamentals.

Supporting Factors

Robust FDI inflows underpin investment and exports.
Low unemployment supports consumption.
Inflation control preserves purchasing power.
Export competitiveness maintained amid trade frictions.
Parliament support: target raised toward ≥8% growth.

Policy Priorities

Market diversification and supply-chain resilience.
Domestic demand reinforcement and SME support.
Maintain macro stability and debt sustainability.
Use fiscal space if external shocks intensify.

Bottom Line: Cautiously optimistic. Growth likely solid, with upside if trade headwinds ease and FDI execution accelerates.

Sources and Citations

Show/Hide all

Suggested citation: Vietnam Economic Growth Report 2025 — Interactive Synthesis. Data compiled from GSO, IMF, ADB, Trading Economics, and related sources (see list).

Appendices

Definitions

YoY: Year-over-year rate of change.
FDI Registered: New capital commitments approved.
FDI Disbursed: Actual capital inflows implemented.
H1: First half of calendar year.

Raw series used in charts